Economic activity shows moderate expansion with REM participants projecting a real GDP growth of approximately 3.4% in 2026, slightly above the previous year and adjusted marginally upward from previous surveys. Quarterly growth rates are forecast near 1.0% for Q1 and 0.9% for Q2 of 2026. Unemployment is expected to stabilize around 6.7%, with no significant changes anticipated in short-term labor market dynamics. The fiscal outlook remains positive, with a primary budget surplus projected at approximately ARS16.1 trillion, signaling tighter fiscal discipline supporting macro stability.
Currency markets reflect moderate depreciation, with the nominal exchange rate forecast at around ARS1,707 per USD by year-end 2026, implying an expected annual depreciation near 18%. Interest rates on private bank fixed-term deposits are projected to remain elevated, around 24% nominal annual rates by year-end, reflecting ongoing inflation compensation demands.
The inflation trajectory, supported by persistent price pressures in food and regulated sectors, combined with controlled fiscal policy and modest economic growth, creates a complex environment for monetary and fiscal authorities aiming for disinflation without derailing recovery.
This article was curated and published as part of our South American energy market coverage.
