Argentina to Reach Record Oil Production of 1 Million bpd in 2026 Driven by Vaca Muerta Expansion and Offshore Exploration

Argentina’s oil production has climbed notably from 878,000 bpd in early 2026, breaking the previous 1998 record of 858,000 bpd. The CEO of YPF, Horacio Marín, confirmed that by year-end production will surpass one million bpd, triggered by the onset of operations at the Vaca Muerta Oil Sur (VMOS) pipeline. This infrastructure increase boosts crude evacuation capacity out of Neuquén province, the epicenter of non-conventional shale production which accounted for nearly 70% of the national output in January. Vaca Muerta’s production grew 35.5% year-on-year, underpinning a 16.5% rise in total national output, now close to 882,000 bpd.

Investments in Argentina’s energy sector are projected at $130 billion through 2031, averaging $20 billion annually, reflecting the scale of operations comparable to major global oil companies. YPF anticipates its highest-ever EBITDA of approximately $6 billion in 2026 due to improved operational efficiencies and the focus on high-margin shale assets while divesting mature conventional fields. The energy sector plans to leverage Argentina’s geopolitical stability amid global supply tensions, attracting international service providers and funding.

Further growth avenues include offshore exploration in the Argentine Sea, despite the high technical risks and capital costs. YPF is committed to testing promising offshore basins that could diversify the country’s hydrocarbon base beyond shale. The expansion and diversification strategy aim to consolidate Argentina’s energy exports, forecasted to reach $40 billion annually by the mid-2030s, overtaking traditional export sectors and contributing to macroeconomic stability.