Between October and November 2025, approval for oil exploration along the northern coastline—stretching from the Amapá state toward Rio Grande do Norte—increased from 26% to 42%, while opposition dropped sharply from 70% to 49%, according to a survey of over 2,000 Brazilians across 120 municipalities. The region encompasses sedimentary basins such as the Foz do Amazonas, Pará-Maranhão, Barreirinhas, Ceará, and Potiguar, considered a new frontier for the country’s oil and gas production.
The survey reveals regional and political nuances in public opinion. The Northeast remains the only region where a clear majority supports exploration (46% in favor versus 44% opposed), while the North and Center-West show higher levels of dissent, with 51% against and 42% in favor. Politically, support is strongest among supporters of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, with 51% approval, a notable increase from previous months. Right-wing non-Bolsonaro voters also show near parity in their views. However, Bolsonaro supporters remain largely opposed, with 58% rejecting the initiative.
This change follows the Brazilian Institute of Environment and Renewable Natural Resources’ (Ibama) approval, issued on October 20, allowing Petrobras to perform exploratory drilling at the FZA-M-059 block in the deep waters off Amapá. The operation aims to drill six to seven exploratory wells to assess the presence and economic viability of oil and gas reserves. Petrobras has earmarked approximately US$3 billion in its 2025-2029 investment plan for advancing operations in the Margem Equatorial.
Despite governmental optimism, the project faces strong opposition from environmental groups, who warn about the fragile ecosystems near the Amazon River’s mouth and potential risks such as oil spills, which could have devastating biodiversity impacts. The duality of opinion reflects tensions within political and environmental leadership. Environment Minister Marina Silva acknowledges the technical basis of Ibama’s license while recognizing the inherent contradictions in expanding fossil fuel exploration on the cusp of a major climate conference.
Political advocacy for the Margem Equatorial’s development remains vocal in the National Congress, where deputies from northern states argue that oil revenue could enhance regional economic growth and alleviate poverty. These calls emphasize the region’s need for infrastructural and developmental investments, juxtaposed with fears of neglect and bureaucratic delays that previously hindered progress.
On the industry side, Petrobras defends its technological capabilities, asserting readiness to operate safely with robust contingency plans for accidental discharges. The company highlights its ongoing efforts to offset declining production from the South Atlantic pre-salt fields, which currently account for nearly 80% of Brazil’s oil output. The gradual depletion of these traditional reserves intensifies the urgency to develop new fields such as those in the Margem Equatorial.
The heightened profile of the Margem Equatorial exploration coincides with the COP30 summit, where Brazil is navigating complex international negotiations on fossil fuel reduction while internally balancing economic interests with climate commitments. Studies questioning the extent to which revenues from new oil production may effectively finance energy transition strategies further complicate the debate. Critics underscore that fossil fuel companies globally allocate a minor share of their investments to renewables, and that historically, regions benefiting from oil royalties have not consistently outperformed others socioeconomically.
Meanwhile, the emergence of the Margem Equatorial as an oil exploration zone has also attracted international interest, with foreign energy majors such as TotalEnergies, QatarEnergy, and Petronas continuing upstream investments in neighboring Guyana, which drives regional exploration momentum. Petrobras itself braces for enhanced activity, highlighted by the arrival of the P-79 drillship in the Santos Basin, signaling continued expansion of offshore capacity.
As exploration advances, the Brazilian public remains divided—reflecting a nation weighing economic development against environmental stewardship. The results from exploratory drilling in the coming months will likely influence not only Petrobras’ strategic direction but also the broader trajectory of Brazil’s energy policy in a critical decade for global climate action.
This article was curated and published as part of our South American energy market coverage.
