Colombia’s Mining and Energy Sector Faces Continued Contraction in 2026 Amid Declining Production and Rising Import Dependence

Between January and November 2025, Colombia’s oil production averaged 747,000 barrels per day, reflecting a 3.6% year-on-year decline. Natural gas output experienced a sharper drop of 17%, intensifying concerns over the country’s energy security and raising the prospect that imports could account for more than 20% of domestic supply. The mining and quarrying segment posted its largest quarterly contraction since records began, shrinking 5.6% in Q3 2025, with projections signaling a further 2.9% decline in 2026. Coal production also posted a double-digit decrease, falling 5.5% in Q3 2025 and expected to contract nearly 12% next year, impacted by weaker international demand and pressures from the global energy transition.

The erosion of production volumes has translated into weaker financial results for key companies. Ecopetrol reported an 11% decline in EBITDA and a 25% slump in net profits over the twelve months ending Q3 2025, attributable to reduced output, less favorable pricing, and increased tax burdens following an economic emergency declaration. Export values for crude fell 17% annually in Q3 2025 due to lower prices and volumes.

Colombia’s electricity sector is challenged by dependency on hydroelectric generation and gas-fired plants, with high gas import prices fueling significant electricity cost increases and inflationary pressures. Regulatory bottlenecks have delayed generation and transmission projects by over six years, stifling private investment and risking energy shortages. Fiscal vulnerabilities rise as the minero-energético sector’s GDP share shrinks and tax contributions decline.

Upcoming multinational forums, such as the 15th edition of Colombia Genera, plan to address these challenges by fostering dialogue to unlock investments, streamline permitting, and design pragmatic energy transition strategies. The lack of new exploration contracts and elevated fiscal pressures remain critical constraints, suggesting that without policy adjustments focused on regulatory efficiency and investor confidence, Colombia’s mining and energy sector contraction will likely persist through 2026.