To maintain grid stability, about 4,000 MW of demand in December 2025 is met with roughly 2,800 MW from hydro, 900 MW from thermal plants, 200 MW through imports (primarily from Colombia), and the remainder via non-conventional renewables such as wind and solar. Import volumes reached 350 MW at peak demand periods in mid-December. Generation with thermal resources costs approximately $0.12/kWh, more than twice the $0.05/kWh cost of hydropower, increasing financial pressure on energy providers and the state.
The government reports adding over 860 MW of new firm capacity since 2023 and plans to incorporate another 1,000+ MW by 2027 with projects spanning hydro, renewables, and thermal plants. Meanwhile, infrastructure modernization efforts include upgrading transmission networks and strengthening interconnections with Peru. Delays and contractual complications with thermal generation companies like Progen and Austral have hampered capacity expansion, though alternative solutions such as barge-mounted generation units from Turkey are contributing. The Ministry of Energy and Electricity operator Cenace stress that, despite these challenges, Ecuador is not currently at risk of blackouts but remains alert to possible contingencies linked to continued low rainfall through late December and the upcoming wet-dry seasonal cycles.
Longer-term strategies involve diversifying the energy matrix with renewable projects and nuclear options, aiming to reduce reliance on costly thermal generation and imports while enhancing domestic production resilience.
This article was curated and published as part of our South American energy market coverage.
