Operationally, YPF reported a record adjusted EBITDA of approximately $5 billion, supported by improved refining margins and robust production growth in Vaca Muerta. Shale oil output expanded 43% year-on-year, reaching 204,000 barrels per day by December and surpassing annual goals. The company’s shale operations now constitute about 70% of total oil production, offsetting declines in mature fields that were divested, such as Manantiales Behr. Capital expenditures rose to $4.48 billion, with 72% allocated to non-conventional assets, and 2026 capex is projected to increase further to $5.8 billion, emphasizing Vaca Muerta development to reach 215,000 barrels daily.
Fuel pricing dynamics in Argentina reflect growing government influence, as reduced crude prices were counterbalanced by a 39% real increase in fuel-related taxes (ICL and CO2 levies), raising their share from 9% to 13% of end-user prices in 2025. This shift maintained retail fuel prices at competitive regional levels but absorbed potential consumer relief from lower crude prices. Biofuel costs also imposed upward pressure, with biodiesel prices falling less than fossil fuels, complicating the downstream cost structure.
YPF’s net debt improved slightly to $9.4 billion, with a net leverage ratio of 1.9x targeted for reduction between 1.6 and 1.7x in 2026. The company faces approximately $2.1 billion in debt maturities next year, including local bonds and loan interest. On the legal front, Argentina secured a temporary reprieve from a U.S. court order requiring the transfer of the government’s 51% stake in YPF for compensation claims tied to the 2012 re-nationalization, avoiding immediate dilution of state control amid ongoing litigation.
Overall, YPF’s 2025 results signal a dual challenge: managing near-term fiscal impacts and legal risks while leveraging enhanced production and asset optimization to drive operational recovery in a politically complex environment.
This article was curated and published as part of our South American energy market coverage.
