The government maintains Ecuador faces no generation deficit, citing total installed capacity of 7,700 MW with approximately 5,800 MW operationally available depending on hydroelectric reservoir levels and thermal plant status. The Mazar reservoir currently stands 22-23 meters above 2024 levels when the country experienced energy restrictions. Manzano emphasized generation adequacy while identifying distribution networks, substations and transmission lines as the constraint preventing reliable service delivery.
However, the National Electricity Operator’s 2024-2026 operational plan contradicts official messaging, stating the system operates in a “degraded” condition without sufficient control resources to meet quality, reliability and security criteria. The document warns Ecuador’s grid functions “near instability limits” with permanent exposure to forced load disconnections. Critical bottlenecks exist in the Trinitaria-Salitral-Pascuales 138 kV corridor serving Guayas, where lack of expansion projects leaves demand management through rationing as the only technical alternative to prevent total collapse.
The government has committed USD 78 million in 2026 for distribution improvements, which Manzano claims represents investment levels unseen in nearly a decade. Three new substations are planned for Guayaquil at Las Orquídeas, Las Esclusas, and improvements to the overloaded Dos Cerritos facility serving northern Guayas including Samborondón, Santa Lucía and Pedro Carbo. Maintenance work conducted April 13 at Dos Cerritos addressed high loading conditions where capacity reaches maximum during peak demand periods.
Technical assessments reveal deeper infrastructure deficits. State transmission company Transelectric’s expansion plan contains no significant projects to resolve supply constraints, forcing reliance on uneconomic thermal generation in Pascuales and Machala to prevent transmission line overloads. Ecuador operates 541 MW of thermal capacity exceeding 30 years of age, while transformers at 12 critical substations lack backup units, creating single points of failure. Key substations including Ambato, Manta, Portoviejo, Molino, Cuenca and Santo Domingo utilize equipment installed between 1977 and 1983, many operating above 90 percent loading. Former Energy Minister Fernando Santos characterized the maintenance suspension as reflecting poor planning that risks irreversible asset damage requiring costly replacements.
This article was curated and published as part of our South American energy market coverage.
