The plan, approved by Petrobras’ Board of Directors on November 27, 2025, allocates $91 billion to projects already underway and $18 billion to initiatives still undergoing technical and economic feasibility analysis. The total investment is modestly down from the $111 billion earmarked for 2025-2029 but maintains the company’s longstanding focus on exploration and production (E&P), especially in the prolific pre-salt basins.
Exploration and production remain the company’s highest priority, with $78 billion dedicated to this segment. Of this, approximately 62% will be invested in pre-salt projects, which continue to sustain Petrobras’ low extraction costs—estimated at under $6 per barrel. The portfolio also includes investments in post-salt fields and frontier exploratory areas such as the Margem Equatorial, a strategic zone extending from the coast of Amapá to Rio Grande do Norte. Petrobras plans to drill eight exploratory wells across six blocks in this region, bolstered by the recent issuance of a licensing permit from Brazil’s environmental agency Ibama for activity in the Amazon River mouth basin.
The plan anticipates a peak oil production of 2.7 million barrels per day by 2028, underpinned by the revitalization of mature fields and advances in deepwater platforms. However, some projects, notably the Barracuda and Caratinga field revitalizations in the Campos Basin, have been postponed beyond 2030, as have offshore production floating units (FPSOs) initially scheduled for earlier commissioning. A planned FPSO with a capacity of 100,000 barrels per day has been deferred indefinitely past 2031, illustrating Petrobras’ more conservative approach. The first production platform in Sergipe remains slated for 2030, with subsequent units awaiting final finance and technical evaluations.
Refining, transportation, and commercialization will collectively receive $20 billion, focusing on upgrading the refinery park to produce higher-quality, low-carbon fuels. Among these investments, the completion of the Abreu e Lima Refinery expansion and the Refino Boaventura project stand out. Petrobras also plans to invest $9 billion in gas and low-carbon energy initiatives, reflecting a 21% cut from the previous plan’s transition energy budget. Efforts here are aimed at reducing emissions and diversifying energy offerings, including some involvement in biorefineries and renewable fuels.
Operational efficiency is a clear theme across the plan, with Petrobras targeting $12 billion in cost reduction by 2030. Measures include cutting expenses in non-productive offshore platforms, optimizing logistics and maintenance operations, and improving productivity across its asset base. These efforts align with the company’s objective to maintain financial discipline while preserving dividend payouts—and avoiding increased leverage amid a Brent oil price outlook averaging $63 per barrel in 2026, rising to $70 in subsequent years.
Despite the tougher outlook and ongoing project reassessments, Petrobras projects distributing between $45 billion and $50 billion in ordinary dividends over the five-year horizon, though it has removed references to previous plans for extraordinary dividends. The company’s commitment to a dual strategy of “low cost and low emissions” remains central, balancing robust oil and gas production with ambitions for gradual decarbonization and sustainable value creation.
This investment blueprint will have broad repercussions for Brazil’s oil and gas sector, signaling priorities to suppliers and contractors and underscoring the challenges facing the industry in a transitioning global energy landscape. While Petrobras remains firmly anchored in oil and gas, its strategic recalibrations illustrate the complex balance between maintaining cash flow, investing in production capacity, and responding to evolving environmental and market dynamics.
This article was curated and published as part of our South American energy market coverage.
