Globally, the US dollar index (DXY) recovered strongly, peaking at an intraday level of 99.20 points amid the sixth day of US military operations in the Middle East. The sinking of an Iranian vessel amplified investor caution, bolstering demand for the dollar as a safe haven asset. Concurrently, rising oil prices added upward pressure on markets, triggering declines in international stock exchanges and reinforcing risk aversion.
Looking ahead, official projections from the Central Bank of Uruguay indicate a gradual increase in the dollar-peso exchange rate through 2026. The median forecast suggests exchange rates moving from roughly 38.98 pesos in January to 39.33 in June, culminating around 40.19 pesos by year-end. A longer-term view places the rate near 41.46 pesos by the close of 2027. In parallel, Uruguay’s GDP growth is estimated to remain stable but moderate, with annual increases near 1.87% in 2026 and inflation projections edging toward the target of 4.5%. These economic fundamentals, combined with ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and oil market volatility, support a near-term environment of elevated exchange rate volatility and gradual peso depreciation.
This article was curated and published as part of our South American energy market coverage.
