The movement followed mixed US labor market signals. November’s unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 4.6%, while payroll employment increased by 64,000 jobs, surpassing consensus expectations of 50,000. However, October saw a loss of 105,000 jobs, delayed in release due to the government shutdown. These figures generated caution among investors internationally, contributing to the global dollar’s retreat during the day. Regionally, the Colombian peso depreciated in line with other Latin American currencies, notably pressured by the Argentine peso’s decline after the central bank introduced a new inflation-linked currency framework.
Market experts highlighted the week’s busy macroeconomic schedule in the US, with inflation, employment, and economic activity data set to clarify the Federal Reserve’s cycle. Global66’s Rodrigo Lama indicated that a stable, low-volatility environment with steady commodities and subdued US data would likely continue dollar depreciation against emerging market currencies, potentially supporting the COP toward a support level near COP 3,760. Conversely, signs of inflationary or employment surprises could trigger a short-term dollar rebound to between COP 3,880 and COP 3,900, reflecting heightened risk aversion.
Meanwhile, Davivienda Corredores’ Santiago Martínez forecasted an upward trend for the COP exchange rate at year-end due to deteriorating fiscal fundamentals and growing dollar imbalances in Colombia, despite expectations of a weakening global dollar index (DXY) in 2026. Trade volumes in the local market have remained robust, and pressures from import-driven dollar demand persist, offsetting some positive developments at the international level. Oil prices declined modestly amid projections of slow global demand growth for crude in 2026, with Brent crude closing near USD 60.27 per barrel and WTI near USD 56.38, signaling continued cautious sentiment in commodity markets.
This article was curated and published as part of our South American energy market coverage.
