Demand for electrical power grew at 7.2 percent annually between 2010 and 2025, but the rate jumped to 8.2 percent in the 2020-2025 period. Energy consumption followed a similar pattern, accelerating from 7.4 percent to 10.5 percent annually. Under scenarios projecting 8 to 10 percent annual growth, current generation sources will reach their ceiling between 2028 and 2030. The conservative 8 percent scenario shows demand crossing the 7,813 MW threshold in 2030, while the 10 percent case pushes energy consumption past 51,400 GWh per year before 2031.
Paraguay will require 493 MW of additional capacity by 2028, rising progressively to 844 MW per year by 2035, according to IPPSE projections. The Yacyretá expansion, adding 1,550 MW through ten turbines, carries an estimated cost of USD 3.72 billion and a 10 to 14-year timeline, contingent on resolving binational debt with Argentina and constructing a compensating reservoir. The Itacorá-Itatí project would add 1,660 MW over 14 years at USD 5 billion, while Corpus, blocked since a 1996 provincial referendum in Misiones, Argentina, would require 13 years and USD 7.5 billion for 2,880 MW.
Solar generation emerges as the fastest alternative with three to four-year development timelines, though intermittency requires battery storage for nighttime and low-radiation periods. Enhanced interconnections with Brazil and Argentina through upgraded transmission infrastructure could provide relief in four to five years, marking a shift for a country historically positioned as an electricity exporter. Bitcoin mining currently consumes approximately 30 percent of national energy production, with contracts expiring in 2027 adding uncertainty to future allocation. The Aña Cuá project, the only significant construction underway, will add 135 MW, insufficient to match demand growth without parallel investments exceeding USD 11 billion over the next 13 years.
This article was curated and published as part of our South American energy market coverage.
