The surge is concentrated in the Neuquén basin, where unconventional production from Vaca Muerta now represents 68% of Argentina’s total oil output and 67% of gas production year-to-date. The BCR projects 16% growth in national oil extraction for 2026, which would surpass the previous production peak established in 1998. Volume increases accounted for 79% of the export rise in the first half, while international price gains contributed the remaining 21%, driven by geopolitical volatility stemming from the United States-Iran conflict and temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Energy and fuel exports reached $8.118 billion in the first six months, up 52% year-over-year. The energy sector now accounts for more than 15% of Argentina’s total exports, a share not recorded in two decades. Conversely, fuel and lubricant imports dropped 29% to levels not seen since 2007, representing just 3% of total import spending—the lowest proportion since 1999.
The BCR forecasts full-year 2026 energy exports could exceed $14.400 billion, with the energy trade balance potentially surpassing $12.000 billion. Infrastructure developments are expected to accelerate growth further. The VMOS pipeline connecting Allen to Punta Colorada is scheduled to begin operations in November, initially evacuating an additional 190,000 barrels per day. With full deployment of infrastructure projects approved under the RIGI large-investment incentive regime, the BCR estimates energy exports could climb above $18.500 billion in 2027.
This article was curated and published as part of our South American energy market coverage.
