Brazil PV module imports plunge 48% as curtailment crushes utility-scale demand and prices rise

Brazil imported 5.48 GW of photovoltaic modules in the first half of 2026, down 48% from 10.57 GW in the same period of 2025, according to consultancy Greener. The contraction reflects a sharp deceleration in demand for solar equipment, particularly from utility-scale projects. Imports declined year-on-year in nearly every month of the six-month period, falling 71.6% in March and 60.7% in April. May was the only exception, registering a 6.5% increase from the prior-year month. Monthly volumes dropped from 2.33 GW to 1.12 GW in January, from 2.19 GW to 1.02 GW in February, and from 2.03 GW to 576.7 MW in March.

The contraction was most severe in the centralized generation segment. Module imports for utility-scale projects fell 82%, from 2.3 GW in the first half of 2025 to 430 MW in the same period of 2026. Luiza Bertazzoli, head of market intelligence at Greener, identified curtailment as the dominant factor behind the decline. Generation curtailment reduces projected project revenue and increases the perceived risk of new investment, she said. The supply-demand imbalance is also linked to the large number of project authorizations granted during the rush to meet tariff-discount deadlines in recent years, while stronger-than-expected growth in distributed micro- and minigeneration has intensified competition for grid capacity.

The distributed generation segment experienced a milder downturn. Module imports for distributed applications fell 39%, from 8.2 GW to approximately 5 GW. Despite the decline, distributed generation’s share of module imports rose from 78% in the first half of 2025 to 92% in the same period of 2026, while the centralized share dropped from 22% to 8%. Greener attributed the distributed slowdown to market maturation after years of rapid expansion, high interest rates, declining use of sales financing, and grid-connection constraints. The proportion of sales involving financing fell from 57% in 2021 to 41% in 2026, according to a Greener survey. Grid-connection refusals by electricity distributors due to reverse power flow are another obstacle, particularly acute in Minas Gerais, where 79% of system integrators reported encountering it in 2025 versus a national average of 33%. Remote distributed generation is also affected by the gradual introduction of the TUSD distribution tariff’s Fio B component, which reached 60% in 2026 and reduced the economic benefit of generating electricity at one location and using credits to offset consumption elsewhere.

The weighted average free-on-board price of modules rose 12.9% in the first half of 2026, from $0.0802/W in the same period of 2025 to $0.0906/W. The increase was concentrated in the second quarter, with the average price reaching $0.1042/W in May, 29% above the January price of $0.0816/W. Greener attributed the increase to China’s phaseout of a 9% export incentive for photovoltaic modules beginning in April.