Solar generation in the Northeast reached approximately 16 GW on August 7, equivalent to 113 percent of regional demand at that moment, according to operator data. The surplus can be transferred to other regions within transmission limits or curtailed to maintain system security. The mismatch stems from 4.6 million consumers now operating as micro or mini-generators, representing roughly 5 percent of total consumption and producing energy at or near the point of use. Distributed generation has grown to around 50 GW of installed capacity nationally.
Curtailment in 2025 totaled 20 percent of centralized wind and solar output, reaching 4.02 GW average and generating estimated losses of R$6.5 billion for generators, according to Volt Robotics consultancy. The National Electric System Operator’s Energy Operation Plan 2026 projects curtailment levels will decline due to combined effects of demand growth, transmission expansion, and slower growth rates for wind and solar connected to the main grid. The operator emphasized that reduction depends on entry of new electro-intensive loads such as data centers and balance between demand growth and expansion of both centralized renewable generation and distributed micro-generation.
The operator is developing an automated generation curtailment mechanism capable of cutting up to 3 GW of distributed generation in three 1 GW stages when other alternatives are exhausted. A pilot project in one distribution concession area is scheduled for completion by end-2026, with potential implementation in 2027. Industry association ABSolar reported investment in centralized solar plants has frozen due to perceived curtailment risk, while distributed generation continues expanding albeit at slower pace than previous years, with 8 to 9 GW of new solar capacity expected in 2026 compared to 16.3 GW added in 2025.
This article was curated and published as part of our South American energy market coverage.
