The hydrology picture underlying these demand projections shows marked regional divergence. Natural inflow forecasts for October place the South at 193% of long-term average and the Southeast and Central-West at 105%, while the Northeast is projected at 61% and the North at 43% of historical mean. Reservoir storage levels as of the end of October are expected to reach 91.5% in the South, 66.1% in the North, 63.4% in the Northeast, and 55.6% in the Southeast and Central-West. All subsystems are forecast to close the month above 55% of maximum storage capacity.
Operating cost projections reflect the hydrology split. The marginal operating cost for the Southeast and Central-West, South, and Northeast subsystems stands at 42.43 reais, while the North subsystem faces a substantially higher figure of 461.46 reais. ONS director-general Marcio Rea noted that gradually rising temperatures require continuous monitoring of system operating conditions, with the operator prepared to implement preventive measures to maintain grid security and reliability as energy scenarios evolve.
The operational context includes ongoing generation curtailment management that reached distributed generation in August 2026 for the second time since the procedure was established in 2025. Between 2026 and 2030, installed capacity in Brazil is projected to grow approximately 32 GW to reach 300 GW, with 19 GW or 60% of that addition coming from micro and mini distributed generation. Peak load is expected to rise about 21 GW to 129 GW of maximum demand by 2030, creating a supply expansion outpacing demand growth and increasing the likelihood of more frequent activation of excess management plans.
This article was curated and published as part of our South American energy market coverage.
