The transition does not eliminate hydroelectric generation from the system but signals a structural diversification of the matrix. Wind, solar and other renewable sources will reduce the grid’s historical reliance on large hydropower projects. Natural gas will continue to serve as backup capacity during periods of reduced water availability, maintaining system flexibility as intermittent sources grow.
Investment allocation reinforces solar’s dominance. Of the estimated $93 billion expected to flow into Brazil’s electricity sector between 2026 and 2030, approximately 58% is projected to target solar projects. Onshore wind and natural gas generation follow in the investment queue, reflecting a strategy that balances renewable expansion with operational security.
The 2035 outlook aligns with broader ambitions outlined in the National Energy Plan 2055, published by the Ministry of Mines and Energy in late September 2026. The plan projects that renewable sources could account for more than 80% of Brazil’s total energy matrix by 2055, spanning transport, industry, residential and agricultural sectors. Electricity demand alone is forecast to quadruple over the 30-year horizon, while electric generation could reach up to 99% clean sources by mid-century, with continued expansion of wind and solar.
Transmission infrastructure will require proportional scaling. The plan estimates that transmission lines and transformation capacity may need to triple by 2055 to accommodate distributed renewable generation across the country. Energy efficiency measures could meanwhile reduce final consumption by more than 25%, offsetting some of the projected demand growth. Biofuel production is also expected to increase up to fivefold during the period, adding another renewable pillar to the energy transition.
This article was curated and published as part of our South American energy market coverage.
