The government plans multiple energy auctions throughout 2027 after a previous auction failed when the awarded project did not fulfill requirements, leaving a larger supply gap. Arboleda stated the ministry has coordinated with regulator CREG on the auction schedule, acknowledging an express auction planned for 2026 could not be completed in time.
New generation capacity additions have fallen dramatically short of targets. Of 4,475 MW projected to enter service in 2026, only 1,027 MW had connected by mid-September, representing 16.4% completion with three months remaining. Analysis shows 275 generation projects face delays exceeding one year, with 33 projects delayed over four years. Transmission infrastructure bottlenecks persist with 10-12 year delays in the Eastern zone, while the critical Colectora line required to unlock La Guajira wind power remains incomplete.
Gas supply represents an additional vulnerability as thermal generation compensates for reduced hydroelectric output. Imported gas now covers 30% of national consumption, with Colombia facing potential gas deficits from February 2027 despite nearly six years of stated autonomy. The government explores importing gas from Venezuela to address the shortfall, a possibility dismissed as unviable by the previous administration due to sanctions and the Gasoducto Transcaribeño Antonio Ricaurte’s condition.
Reservoir levels compound the challenge. While current storage appears adequate at 78.7% capacity, August hydrological contributions ran 25% below historical averages, worsening to 27% deficit by mid-September. Hydroelectric generation share dropped from 78% in early 2026 to 59% in September, while thermal generation jumped from 13% to 31.6%. Antioquia region reservoirs, holding over 50% of national water reserves, show historically low inflow levels.
The ministry injected 1.5 trillion pesos to maintain thermal plant liquidity, with initial disbursements of 300 billion pesos, while allocating 369 billion pesos for energy subsidies and 7.6 billion pesos for gas subsidies to stabilize the sector.
This article was curated and published as part of our South American energy market coverage.
