Colombia faces natural gas deficit from February 2027 as reserves drop 16.8% and imports reach 40% of demand

Colombia’s proven natural gas reserves fell 16.8% in 2025 to 1,717 gigacubic feet, leaving just 5.9 years of autonomy at current consumption rates, according to the National Hydrocarbons Agency. Daily gas consumption averages 832 to 900 gigaBTU across residential, commercial, industrial, vehicular and thermal generation sectors. National production has weakened to approximately 700 million cubic feet per day, down 10.3% year-on-year in August at 717 million cubic feet daily. Minister Arboleda emphasized that imported gas now represents 30% to 40% of total demand, up from 17% at the end of the previous year.

The Ministry of Mines and Energy outlined multiple initiatives to close the supply gap. The expansion of the SPEC regasification terminal in Cartagena will add 58 million cubic feet daily for thermal plants. A strategic acceleration group within the National Hydrocarbons Agency aims to enable 10 million cubic feet daily from a Córdoba project starting February 2027, alongside enhanced recovery options from existing fields. Two new regasification facilities are scheduled: the Pacific terminal around November 2026 delivering 60 million cubic feet daily to Ecopetrol, and the Puerto Bahía facility in Cartagena targeting early 2027 with 126 million cubic feet daily capacity, though Frontera Energy is working to advance its timeline.

The gas situation intersects with broader electricity system stress. The ministry projects a firm energy deficit of 8.3% for 2026-2027, equivalent to 7,669 gigawatt-hours annually. Thermal plants gain importance when hydroelectric contributions decline during El Niño events, making gas availability critical for system reliability. Approximately 60% of transmission projects show delays, potentially blocking new generation plants from connecting and delivering power to consumption centers.

Of 4,475 megawatts of new capacity expected in 2026, the incorporation rate stands at just 16.4%. Electricity demand grew 4.9% between October 2025 and October 2026, while Colombia targets 36.7 gigawatts of installed capacity by 2032, representing a 65% increase over current assigned capacity. The government created the Sectorial Committee for National Energy Security through Resolution 40491 of 2026 to coordinate responses to natural events, technical limitations and operational challenges.

Arboleda announced Colombia will restart hydrocarbon exploration rounds this year after the previous Petro administration suspended new area assignments. The Energy Plan allocates 1.9 trillion pesos for sector obligations, including 1.5 trillion pesos for current debt to provide cash flow to thermal generators. The CREG regulator scheduled a reconfiguration auction for January and an expansion auction for June 2027. The ministry also explores interconnection possibilities with Panama and holds conversations with Venezuela, though without specifying whether discussions cover electricity or gas imports.