Acolgen president Natalia Gutiérrez characterized the country’s energy security as being “in intensive care” and attributed current difficulties to the previous Petro government. According to XM data cited by the association, the firm energy deficit relative to demand will reach 5.4 percent in 2026, climbing to 7.8 percent in 2027 and 7.6 percent in 2028. Firm energy represents generation capacity guaranteed even under unfavorable hydrological conditions, a critical metric for systems heavily dependent on hydroelectric facilities.
Demand growth has accelerated beyond historical patterns, with June 2026 showing 5.04 percent monthly expansion compared to typical two to three percent annual increases. Meanwhile, XM reported aggregate reservoir levels at 78.89 percent and system inflows at 67.69 percent against a 72.97 percent average, with uneven regional distribution creating localized vulnerabilities. The eastern region faces potential rationing due to simultaneous maintenance shutdowns at Guavio and Chivor hydroelectric plants totaling over 1,700 megawatts.
Economic impact assessments underscore the severity of potential disruptions. Gutiérrez stated that one hour of daily electricity rationing could cost between COP 170 billion and COP 200 billion, affecting manufacturing, mining and commerce sectors representing 24 percent of GDP and 30 percent of national employment. Separate analysis from Lumen Economic Intelligence estimates a 1992-scale blackout would generate COP 30.7 trillion in losses, eliminate 80,000 to 210,000 jobs, and push 160,000 to 480,000 people into monetary poverty.
Incorporation of new generating capacity has consistently underperformed targets, with only 28 percent of planned capacity entering operation in 2022, 17 percent in 2023, 25 percent in 2024, and 10.8 percent in 2025. Through September 2026, the completion rate stood at 23 percent.
This article was curated and published as part of our South American energy market coverage.
