The reservoir regulates water flow to three plants totaling 1,757 MW of installed capacity: Mazar at 170 MW, Paute-Molino at 1,100 MW, and Sopladora at 487 MW. Together these units provide 30 to 38 percent of national electricity demand. If Mazar reaches minimum operating level, the entire cascade must shut down, replicating the widespread blackouts Ecuador experienced in 2023 and 2024.
The Consejo Consultivo de Ingenierías y Economía estimates a system deficit of 1,000 to 1,300 MW between October and March. The group projects power cuts could average seven hours daily under normal dry season conditions, extending to 12 hours if drought intensifies. Contributing to system stress, the Coca Codo Sinclair plant—Ecuador’s largest hydroelectric facility at 1,500 MW—saw output drop from 26-28 gigawatt-hours daily in August to 21-25 gigawatt-hours in September as river flow declined to 161 cubic meters per second. This 400 MW effective loss forces increased drawdown from Mazar to maintain grid frequency.
The government ordered disconnection of 185 high-voltage industrial consumers on September 29-30, targeting 600 to 1,000 MW of demand reduction during peak hours when national load reaches 5,400 to 5,500 MW. Only 47 of the disconnected firms possess full self-generation capacity. The Ministry of Energy projects these restrictions will preserve Mazar reserves through December, though the reservoir continued declining despite the measures. Weekend rainfall on October 3-4 briefly lifted Mazar’s level by 1.39 meters to 2,131.85 meters and increased inflow to 111.5 cubic meters per second, though operators kept the plant offline to conserve water. Daily reservoir losses of 80 to 90 centimeters resumed after the precipitation event ended.
This article was curated and published as part of our South American energy market coverage.
