The World Meteorological Organization confirmed an extraordinarily high probability approaching 100 percent that the current episode will persist through February 2027, with the phenomenon reaching very strong magnitude. Ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific have risen 2.2°C to 2.6°C above normal between late July and mid-August, with subsurface temperatures exceeding 8°C above average in some areas during July and early August.
In Peru, the government enacted a 60-day emergency decree to execute immediate prevention measures ahead of extreme precipitation projected for 2026-2027. Prime Minister Luis Galarreta stated that mitigating El Niño impacts represents the administration’s most urgent priority, asserting the government will not be caught unprepared by the climate event. Climate analyses confirmed high probability of extreme precipitation scenarios due to the continuation of Coastal El Niño and development of El Niño in the central equatorial Pacific.
Panama faces risk from drier conditions affecting both hydroelectric generation and Panama Canal operations. Moody’s mapping identifies Panama within zones facing reduced rainfall, with precipitation deficits significantly affecting canal operations and reservoir levels. The country maintains relevant hydropower participation in its generation mix alongside gas, solar, wind and thermal sources. The canal authority reduced daily transits from 36 to 34 vessels beginning September 3, with further reduction to 32 planned by September 15 to support long-term operational sustainability.
Ecuador declared red alert on August 29, 2026, anticipating severe meteorological droughts in the inter-Andean region and Amazon basin where major hydroelectric facilities operate. The National Risk Management Secretariat’s action plan highlights probable hydrological deficits affecting infrastructure at Coca Codo Sinclair, which provides 30 percent of Ecuador’s generation, and the Paute Complex with 1,757 MW capacity. The drought period coincides with the dry season extending from September 2026 through March 2027.
This article was curated and published as part of our South American energy market coverage.
