The timing carries particular significance as October represents Brazil’s peak diesel consumption month, having set a historical record of 6.43 million cubic meters in 2025. US suppliers accounted for 68% of Brazilian diesel imports in July and August according to Comex Stat data, with that concentration increasing to approximately 80% in September according to the Brazilian Fuel Importers Association. The association noted that if Trump proceeds with an export ban, Brazilian importers would face severe operational difficulties, particularly since Russia, which previously supplied 47% of imports in 2025, prohibited most diesel exports in July.
Chambriard’s India strategy builds on existing commercial relationships. The CEO confirmed discussions with Indian refiners and specifically mentioned Reliance, India’s largest refiner. India, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Oman collectively represented 16% of Brazilian diesel imports in 2026, though shipments from the Middle East region were disrupted for months due to regional conflict. Only India resumed significant volumes in August.
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright publicly opposed a total export ban on September 23, arguing it would elevate gasoline and jet fuel prices by forcing refineries to reduce processing when diesel storage fills. Wright stated the administration is working on a voluntary cooperative solution with refineries, with announcements expected within days. The internal disagreement within the Trump administration ahead of November 3 legislative elections adds uncertainty to the supply outlook.
Petrobras logistics director Angelica Laureano separately confirmed the company contracted 650,000 cubic meters of diesel for October and does not anticipate substantial November imports given post-harvest demand patterns. The company operates refineries above 100% utilization factor and targets domestic diesel self-sufficiency by 2030 through projects including the Rnest Train 2 and Boaventura expansions, which would add approximately 330,000 barrels per day of diesel production capacity.
This article was curated and published as part of our South American energy market coverage.
