Argentina positions to reverse gas trade flows with Bolivia by 2031 as Vaca Muerta output surges

Bolivia’s gas production collapsed 53% over the past decade, falling from a 2014 peak of 59.6 million cubic meters per day to a projected 26.6 million cubic meters daily in 2026, according to analysis by consultancy Alpes Energy based on data from state producer YPFB and Bolivia’s national statistics institute. The decline averaged 7.3% annually as mature fields depleted without major new discoveries offsetting output losses. Firm supply contracts to Argentina ended in September 2024, though spot deliveries continued on an interruptible basis.

Argentina’s Neuquén Basin followed the opposite trajectory, with production climbing 56% from 70.7 million cubic meters daily in 2016 to 110 million cubic meters daily through the January-July 2026 period. Unconventional gas drove the expansion, surging from 26.4 million to 97.7 million cubic meters daily and raising its share of basin output from 37% to 89%. The growth replaced import needs and created export capacity that already serves shipments to Brazil.

Alpes Energy’s sensitivity scenario projects Bolivian production falling to 15.3 million cubic meters daily by 2031, barely exceeding estimated domestic demand of 14 million cubic meters. That margin would prove insufficient to handle consumption peaks or operational disruptions. By 2032, average annual output could slip below internal requirements, forcing Bolivia into net import status for the first time in decades.

Infrastructure to enable northbound Argentine flows exists through the Norte pipeline reversal completed in November 2024, capable of moving 15 million cubic meters daily toward northwestern provinces. The Manuel Belgrano pipeline, scheduled for April 2029 commissioning, will add 753 kilometers of capacity from Tratayén in Neuquén to La Carlota in Córdoba, strengthening evacuation routes toward potential regional markets. A trial run in April 2025 moved 500,000 cubic meters daily of Argentine gas to Brazil through Bolivian ducts, demonstrating technical feasibility of reversed flows.

Seasonal demand volatility presents the primary constraint on stable export commitments. Argentine winter consumption peaks create competing domestic priorities that would require assured production growth, transport margins and storage capabilities to support firm delivery obligations. Alpes Energy noted the Bolivian opportunity would not match the scale of Brazilian sales or liquefied natural gas projects, but represents an incremental outlet for Vaca Muerta volumes as regional supply dynamics realign.