Bolivian production declined from 56.6 million cubic meters daily in 2016 to a projected 26.6 million cubic meters daily in 2026, representing a 53 percent reduction with an average annual decline rate of 7.3 percent. State company YPFB figures underpin the analysis, which assumes no significant new discoveries. The Neuquén Basin followed an opposite trajectory over the same period, with production rising from 70.7 million cubic meters daily to approximately 110 million cubic meters daily by mid-2026, a 56 percent increase driven almost entirely by unconventional resources.
Shale and tight gas production from Vaca Muerta climbed from 26.4 million cubic meters daily in 2016 to 97.7 million cubic meters daily in 2026, elevating its share of basin output from 37 percent to 89 percent. While Bolivia lost roughly 30 million cubic meters daily of productive capacity during the decade, the Neuquén Basin added 39 million cubic meters daily overall and more than 71 million cubic meters daily from unconventional sources.
The Alpes Energy scenario holds Bolivian domestic demand steady near 14 million cubic meters daily and applies a 10.5 percent annual production decline from 2026 forward. Under those conditions, Bolivian output would reach approximately 15.3 million cubic meters daily in 2031, leaving a margin of just 1.4 million cubic meters daily above baseline consumption. That buffer could prove insufficient during demand peaks or operational disruptions. By 2032, average annual production would fall below domestic requirements, forcing Bolivia into the import market.
Argentina possesses multiple advantages as a potential supplier. The Northern Pipeline reversal completed in November 2024 enabled transport of up to 15 million cubic meters daily toward northwestern Argentina, replacing volumes historically sourced from Bolivia. A practical demonstration occurred in April 2025 when 500,000 cubic meters of Argentine gas moved to Brazil through Bolivian network infrastructure, confirming technical feasibility of reversed flows through existing cross-border systems.
Transportadora de Gas del Norte announced plans for the 753-kilometer Manuel Belgrano Pipeline, designed to expand transport capacity from Vaca Muerta toward central and northern Argentina with projected completion in April 2029. The infrastructure expansion would strengthen evacuation capacity for Neuquén production and support regional integration initiatives. Converting physical capability into firm commercial arrangements will require long-term contracts specifying volumes, delivery points, quality specifications and tariff structures. Seasonal consumption patterns in Argentina present a constraint, as winter demand substantially exceeds summer levels, requiring adequate production, transport and storage capacity to support year-round contractual commitments beyond interruptible surplus sales.
This article was curated and published as part of our South American energy market coverage.
