The plant requires approximately 240-250 m³/s to sustain generation near 1,200 MW continuously, according to specialist Alejandro Jaya. Coca Codo Sinclair, with 1,500 MW of installed capacity, typically covers around 30 percent of national electricity demand. Average generation fell from 1,154 MW in August to 1,052 MW through September 26, then declined to approximately 1,030 MW by September 28. The facility operates as a run-of-river plant with limited compensating reservoir capacity, unlike large storage reservoirs such as Mazar.
The Mazar reservoir, which feeds the Paute Integral complex comprising Mazar, Paute-Molino and Sopladora plants totaling 1,757 MW, stood at 2,131.5 meters above sea level on October 1 at 11:00. The level remained 16.5 meters above the critical operational threshold of 2,115 meters, below which the Mazar plant must cease operation to prevent sediment damage to turbines. Water inflow to Mazar averaged 31.74 m³/s on October 2, down from a September average of 51.3 m³/s against a historical average of 75 m³/s for that month.
The government initially implemented voluntary consumption reductions for Alto Voltaje 1 and Alto Voltaje 2 industrial consumers starting September 22, aiming to reduce demand by approximately 3,100 MWh. When compliance proved insufficient, mandatory disconnections began September 29 for 48 hours, then extended October 1 to 72 hours for 181 AV1 facilities including cement plants, steel mills and mining operations. The Ministry of Environment and Energy calculated the measures would reduce demand by 135-200 MW during peak hours, extending Mazar reserves potentially through December rather than reaching critical levels in October.
Analyst Darío Dávalos warned that if unfavorable climate conditions persist and flows continue declining, authorities may need to expand power cuts to residential and commercial sectors during the third week of October 2026.
This article was curated and published as part of our South American energy market coverage.
