The firm energy deficit does not indicate an immediate blackout but signals reduced backup capacity to handle simultaneous declines in hydroelectric generation and rising demand. Gutiérrez noted that of the generation capacity scheduled to enter the system, only 28 percent came online in 2022, 17 percent in 2023, 25 percent in 2024, and 10.8 percent in 2025. In 2026 to date, the figure stands at just 0.6 percent, meaning demand growth has outpaced new capacity additions and increased pressure on existing plants.
XM, the operator of the National Interconnected System and administrator of the wholesale energy market, issued a warning placing the system at a high risk level. The entity estimates that hydroelectric reserves could drop to a minimum of 15.7 percent in the second quarter of 2027, the lowest level recorded during an El Niño event and below the approximately 27 percent reached between 2023 and 2024. Several major reservoirs may operate below historical minimums and approach critical thresholds.
Thermal plants become essential during reduced water availability, compensating for lower hydroelectric output but at higher operational costs tied to natural gas and other fuels. The government has allocated 1.5 trillion pesos to address liquidity challenges in the electricity chain, including payments to thermal generators whose role expands when hydrology weakens. Acolgen maintains that the country must accelerate new generation capacity and ensure existing plants can operate during critical periods. The sector also carries a debt of 2.5 trillion pesos owed to thermal operators, complicating their readiness during the drought.
This article was curated and published as part of our South American energy market coverage.
