Colombia halts electricity exports to Ecuador after earning $530.6 billion pesos in 18 months, citing domestic supply risk

Colombia’s grid operator XM confirmed no electricity exports to Ecuador have occurred since activating supply shortage risk measures on September 7, 2026. The regulatory framework established by the Commission for Energy and Gas Regulation (CREG) permits exports only when domestic demand is fully secured and only using generation resources not required for internal consumption. Colombia’s decision responds to potential adverse hydrological conditions that reduce hydroelectric capacity and increase reliance on thermal plants operating on gas and coal.

Export revenue data from XM shows Colombia earned $530.682 billion pesos from January 2025 through August 2026. The highest monthly value reached $187.312 billion in January 2025, while August 2026 recorded $132.544 billion. Monthly figures fluctuated significantly, with some periods dropping below $1 billion. XM noted that interconnection between Colombian and Ecuadorian systems can produce inadvertent flows inherent to grid operation that do not necessarily represent commercial electricity transactions.

Ecuador enters its dry season facing heightened vulnerability without Colombian imports. The country’s Mazar reservoir, the largest energy reserve supporting the Paute Integral Hydroelectric Complex with 1,757 megawatts of installed capacity, measured 2,134.09 meters above sea level on September 27, approximately 19 meters below maximum capacity and roughly 19 meters above the critical operational level of 2,115 meters. Average September inflow of 52.4 cubic meters per second fell below the historical average of 75 cubic meters per second.

Ecuador’s Environment and Energy Minister Juan Carlos Blum stated the country must preserve Mazar water for November and December to address the generation deficit. The government initiated weekly disconnections of large industrial consumers, initially affecting approximately 150 companies primarily in Guayaquil and Durán. Authorities announced plans for generation barges, industrial self-generation programs, conservation campaigns, and a 10 percent billing incentive for households reducing consumption over six consecutive months.

Energy experts assess low probability of Colombia resuming exports at previous levels during the risk period. XUA Energy president Julio César Vera indicated that during supply shortage periods, electricity sales remain restricted to surplus energy or generation not needed for local market service, suggesting any exports would involve minimal quantities. Former Energy Minister Amylkar Acosta concluded that maintaining electricity dispatch from Colombia to Ecuador is not viable under current CREG measures.