The suspension interrupts a revenue stream worth COP 530.683 billion accumulated over twenty months. In 2025, exports totaled COP 355.993 billion, peaking at COP 187.313 billion in January before collapsing to COP 3.669 billion in March. The pattern reversed sharply in August 2026, when sales spiked to COP 132.544 billion—roughly 76 percent of the year’s first eight months—before the September cutoff. XM data shows transactions dropped from roughly 6 GWh daily to functionally zero, a 99.6 percent decline verified by Ecuador’s grid coordinator Cenace.
Circular CREG 343, published September 5, activated the shortage-risk mechanism after four consecutive months of below-average hydro inflows, with August inflows at 74.5 percent of the mean and El Niño probability exceeding 90 percent according to IDEAM meteorological assessments. The circular clarifies that the risk period does not mandate rationing but enforces demand priority, with Resolution CREG 101 127 capping validity through May 31, 2027, or until partial reservoir levels surpass the ISO-Thermal threshold.
For Antioquia’s industrial corridor, retaining export-grade generation within the domestic market reduces pressure on Guatapé, El Peñol and Riogrande II reservoirs, stabilizing supply for manufacturing clusters in the Aburrá Valley. Ecuador, meanwhile, faces compounded grid stress, with residential and industrial blackouts reported in Guayas, El Oro and Pichincha despite government assurances of no household cuts. Export resumption timing hinges on hydrological recovery and ministerial review under CREG frameworks.
This article was curated and published as part of our South American energy market coverage.
