Ecuador adds 190 MW thermal capacity as dry season depletes Mazar reservoir by 65 percent in ten days

Ecuador has brought 190 megawatts of additional generation online as the country enters the critical October-to-March dry season, according to government announcements in late September and early October 2026. The Ministry of Energy reactivated 145 MW from two thermoelectric plants in Guayas province—the Trinitaria and Aníbal Santos facilities in Guayaquil—with the TV1 unit at Trinitaria contributing 130 MW after completing scheduled major maintenance. A further 45 MW came from rented generators installed in Santa Elena province. The additions arrive as the Mazar reservoir, Ecuador’s largest hydroelectric storage facility in Azuay province, lost 65 percent of its water reserves in the first ten days of October, a depletion rate that energy analyst Ricardo Buitrón warned could exhaust remaining reserves within 14 days if current draw rates persist.

The Noboa administration ordered mandatory disconnections for more than 9,000 high-voltage and medium-voltage industrial consumers beginning in early October, initially set at 24 hours weekly before extending to 48 hours and then 72 hours from October 12. The Ministry of Environment and Energy justified the measure as necessary to preserve the national interconnected system and prioritize residential supply, stating the government acts preventively in response to climatic and hydrological conditions. Industry groups including the Ecuadorian Business Committee and the Federation of Ecuadorian Exporters warned the stoppages threaten thousands of jobs and reduce GDP, with exporters noting 75 percent of their shipments are perishable goods requiring uninterrupted refrigeration. The Chamber of Aquaculture identified risks to processes such as pond oxygenation, feed production and cold chain operations.

Ecuador’s electricity secretary José Julio Neira announced that large consumers in tariff groups AV1 and AV2 will pay USD 0.30 per kilowatt-hour, up from USD 0.06 to USD 0.09, a three- to fivefold increase described as “sincere pricing” to reflect the cost of power procured from diverse sources. President Daniel Noboa stated the government secured generation from the Toachi Pilatón plant, the 40-MW Baba facility, two contracted barges, and new private generation to avoid residential blackouts during what he termed “the weeks of greatest dry season.” Neira confirmed 655 MW of thermoelectric projects will come online through April 2027.

Colombia suspended commercial electricity exports to Ecuador from September 7, cutting off supplies that had generated COP 530.7 billion between January 2025 and August 2026, with August 2026 alone accounting for COP 132.5 billion. Colombia’s energy regulator CREG activated a supply-risk period under Resolution 101 127 of 2026, prioritizing domestic demand and reservoir protection. XM, Colombia’s grid operator, confirmed zero gigawatt-hours of short-term international transactions since the suspension, removing up to 450 MW of capacity Ecuador had relied upon—roughly 10 percent of the country’s average 4,400-MW demand.

Private renewable additions proceeded independently. GPS Group commissioned the 65-MWp Río de Oro Energy solar plant in Santa Elena province on September 15, three months ahead of schedule, with all output contracted for ten years to industrial and commercial clients including Pica Industrial under a remote self-supply arrangement through the CNEL EP distribution network. The USD 50 million project expects to generate 90 GWh annually and deliver full contracted capacity by January 2027. GPS Group plans to reach 330 MWp by December 2027 through a second phase at Río de Oro and six additional projects in Santa Elena, Guayas and Manabí, with 70 percent of projected 2027 output already contracted.

Ecuador’s hydroelectric fleet typically covers 75 to 80 percent of demand during high rainfall periods but drops sharply during dry months, exposing the system’s structural dependence on hydrological conditions and the absence of sufficient firm capacity to cover the estimated 1,300-MW deficit during low-water periods.